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CAN and its competitors in cars

Markets and Markets, a research company, has published a global forecast to 2022 about in-vehicle networking (IVN). The study reports IVN figures by vehicle type, network technology, application, and geography.

CAN is still and will stay the most used IVN technology in road vehicles (Photo: Fotolia)

Cars implement increasingly ECUs connected via IVNs. The market research study identifies and analyzes the market dynamics such as drivers, restraints, opportunities, and industry-specific challenges for the market. It also profiles the key players operating in the market. The demand for IVN in automobiles is expected to increase owing to the increasing vehicle production and rising trend of vehicle electrification.

CAN turnover forecast for 2016 to 2022 (Source: Markets and Markets)

The base year considered for the study is 2015, and forecast period is from 2016 to 2022. It values the IVN market at US-$ 836,6 million in 2015 and expects to reach US-$ 1,366 billion by 2022, at a CAGR of 7,14 % between 2016 and 2022. The value comprises just the hardware costs for network controllers and transceiver, said the authors in a telephone conversion. It was not clear, how the price per node for the CAN controllers were evaluated, when they were integrated in a micro-controller: With or without partial costs for the housing.

The market share for CAN as shown in the figure is surprisingly low. On the opposite, the Flexray turnover looks quite high. According to CiA, in 2016, there have been sold installed more than 1 billion CAN nodes. Each CAN port comprises a CAN controller and a CAN transceiver. The prices for these high-volume applications are not publically available. But even with conservative estimations, they sum up to more than US-$ 500 million including the price for enclosures. Just the one billion of CAN transceivers made a turnover of more than US-$ 200 million.

CAN market shares in IVN in 2016 (Source: Markets and Markets)

The research methodology used to estimate and forecast the in-vehicle networking market began with capturing data on key vendor revenues through secondary research. Some of the secondary sources include associations such as Organisation Internationale des Constructeurs d'Automobiles (OCIA), International Council on Clean Transportation, and International Organization of Motor Vehicle Manufacturers, among others. The vendor offerings have also been taken into consideration to determine the market segmentation. Primary source were interviews with OEMs and automotive suppliers. The Flexray figures given for 2016 are questionable – in particular, because just a few high-end and medium cars implement today Flexray nodes. The only explanation is that the costs for Flexray controllers are more than ten-times higher as for CAN.